The Great Economic Betrayal

A Comprehensive Analysis of Economic Promises Versus Political Reality

As President Donald Trump’s second term progresses, a stark disconnect is emerging between his campaign promises and economic reality. While Trump campaigned extensively on fixing the economy and controlling inflation, American workers are experiencing the opposite: slowing wage growth, rising unemployment, and a worsening cost-of-living crisis. Meanwhile, the wealthy corporate executives who benefit from Trump’s tax policies continue to see massive windfalls, revealing the true beneficiaries of his economic agenda.

The CEOs of Amazon, Best Buy, Costco, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, and Walmart have collectively saved close to $35 million on their individual tax returns in the seven years the Trump tax cuts have been in effect, while the average worker at the eight stores was paid less than $32,000 in 2024.

This disparity raises fundamental questions about the honesty of Trump’s campaign rhetoric and whether voters were deliberately misled about his economic priorities.

The Economic Promises That Won Trump the Election

Campaign Trail Commitments

Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump made sweeping economic promises that resonated with voters struggling with high costs and economic uncertainty. His central pledges included:

Inflation Control: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods”, Trump declared at a rally in Montana in August 2024.

Job Creation and Economic Growth: Trump repeatedly promised to bring manufacturing jobs back to America, claiming he would “take jobs out of China and bring jobs back to Michigan”.

Cost of Living: He vowed to address the affordability crisis that was dominating voter concerns, promising to lower housing costs, energy prices, and everyday essentials.

Tax Relief for Working Families: Trump promoted his plan to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits, presenting these as measures to help ordinary Americans.

The Electoral Impact

These promises proved politically potent. “I won on the border, and I won on groceries,” Trump said on NBC’s Meet the Press in his first interview after the election. “When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that”.

The strategy worked. Voter frustration with their economic lives was central in propelling Donald Trump to a second term, with two-thirds (67%) of voters described the US economy as not good or poor, according to CNN exit polls.

The Reality: A Deteriorating Labor Market

Rising Unemployment

Contrary to Trump’s promises of economic revival, the labor market has shown concerning signs of weakness throughout 2025. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, representing a significant deterioration from previous levels.

The job market’s decline has been particularly severe for specific demographics:

Black unemployment rose to 7.5%, its highest in nearly three years
The unemployment rate for young workers has been steadily rising—hitting 10.5% in August
The unemployment rate for college grads has risen 0.5 percentage point over the last year to 2.6 percent

Job Growth Stagnation

The employment picture has deteriorated markedly. The United States shed 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 jobs in November, representing a dramatic slowdown from earlier periods. There are now preliminary signals that job growth may be slowing enough to reflect deteriorating employment prospects for at least some groups of workers.

This represents a stark contrast to Trump’s promises of job creation and economic growth. The Congressional Budget Office projects that employment growth is projected to slacken through 2027 as the slowdown in real output growth dampens the demand for workers.

Wage Growth Deceleration

Perhaps most concerning for working families is the slowdown in wage growth. Wage growth slowed average hourly earnings up 3.5% year-over-year, the smallest since May 2021. This deceleration comes at a time when families are already struggling with elevated prices.

Average hourly earnings rose by just 0.1% in November. Over the last year, average earnings have increased by 3.5%. But this is only a half-percent more than inflation’s most recent reading, meaning the wage growth has had little impact on consumers’ purchasing power.

The Tax Cut Reality: Windfall for the Wealthy

Corporate Tax Benefits

While working Americans struggle with economic headwinds, corporations and their executives are reaping substantial benefits from Trump’s tax policies. Thanks to the Trump-GOP tax law, which took effect in 2018, the companies examined in the analysis paid a tax rate of just 17.5% between 2018 and 2024—roughly half what they paid prior to the law’s enactment.

The scale of corporate tax savings is staggering. Major companies have publicly disclosed massive windfall benefits:

AT&T expects “cash taxes to be lower by $1.5 billion to $2 billion in 2025” as a result of the new Trump tax cuts
T-Mobile also anticipates a $1.5 billion annual tax cut
Lockheed Martin anticipates a half-billion dollar cash tax savings from the new law
The petroleum company OneOK discloses that its $1.5 billion tax savings from the new law will put the company in a “no tax rate type of environment through [20]28”

Executive Compensation Explosion

The benefits for corporate executives have been particularly pronounced. CEOs listed in Executive Paywatch will save a combined $738 million in income tax cuts, thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The retail sector provides a particularly stark example of this disparity. While their workers struggle with low wages, major retail CEOs have benefited enormously from tax cuts:

Amazon CEO compensation benefits while the company refuses to even sit down with its employees who have formed a labor union for better pay, benefits, and working conditions
If Lowe’s had used the nearly $50 billion it spent on stock buybacks over the seven-year period to instead raise employee wages, its workers would have each been paid almost $200,000 more

The Inequality Amplification Effect

Historical data shows this pattern is not new. During Trump’s first presidency, compensation for America’s top executives grew 17 percent in 2017 as real wages for workers declined. Chief executives earned 312 times more than the average employee during his first year in office.

The tax cuts have systematically favored capital over labor. Under the Republicans’ tax plan, passed in 2017, companies spent 37 times more on stock buybacks than on bonuses or increased wages for workers. These buybacks bolstered share price and benefited top executives, who tend to receive stock as part of their compensation package.

The Cost-of-Living Crisis Continues

Persistent Affordability Challenges

Despite Trump’s promises to make America affordable again, families continue to face severe cost-of-living pressures. Workers are seeing wage growth stagnate amid elevated and still-rising prices, which are forcing many to skip meals and ration their medications to make ends meet.

The promised relief from high prices has not materialized. Instead, prices for many essentials still remain well above their pre-pandemic levels, while wage growth fails to keep pace with the ongoing inflation.

Housing and Essential Goods

Housing costs remain a particular burden for American families. Despite Trump’s campaign promises to address housing affordability through federal land development and regulatory changes, meaningful relief has not emerged. Energy prices, which Trump promised to cut by 50% during his first year, have not seen the dramatic reductions promised.

Trump’s Shifting Priorities: Immigration Over Economy

The Priority Reversal

Perhaps most revealing about the gap between campaign promises and governing reality is Trump’s own admission that economic issues were never his top priority. “They all said inflation was the No. 1 issue,” Trump said about the presidential campaign. “I said, ‘I disagree. I think people coming into our country from prisons and from mental institutions is a bigger issue for the people that I know.’ And I made it my No. 1”.

This represents a significant departure from his campaign messaging, where economic concerns were front and center. Again on Monday, Trump reiterated that immigration is the bigger issue. “I always felt the border was first,” he said. “I talked about that much more so than I did inflation”.

The Abandoned Economic Agenda

For as much that has happened in these first two weeks of the Trump presidency—and it’s been a lot—one particular thing has been conspicuously absent: a focus on lowering prices. Instead, the administration has focused on immigration enforcement, cultural issues, and federal workforce restructuring.

This shift in priorities suggests that Trump’s economic promises may have been primarily campaign rhetoric designed to win votes rather than genuine policy commitments.

Expert Warnings Proved Accurate

Pre-Election Economic Forecasts

Before the 2024 election, economists warned that Trump’s proposed policies would likely worsen rather than improve economic conditions for ordinary Americans. The Trump agenda would cause weaker economic growth, higher inflation and lower employment, according to a working paper released by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

These warnings specifically highlighted how Trump’s key proposals would backfire:

Tariffs: Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical US household over $2,600 a year, according to analysis from the Peterson Institute

Deportations: Mass deportation plans were predicted to disrupt labor markets and increase costs

Federal Reserve Independence: Erosion of Fed independence would cause higher inflation, capital outflows, a significant loss of value for the US dollar and higher unemployment

The Campaign Response and Current Reality

The Trump campaign responded by reiterating its past argument that experts warning against Trump policies will ultimately be proven wrong, saying “Time warp alert! Just like 2016, Wall Street forecasts said that Trump policies would result in lower growth and higher inflation”.

However, the economic data from 2025 suggests these expert warnings were prescient rather than partisan. The combination of slowing job growth, rising unemployment, and persistent cost-of-living challenges aligns closely with pre-election forecasts.

The Distributional Impact: Who Really Benefits?

The Wealthy Winner’s Circle

Analysis of the Trump tax policies reveals a clear pattern of benefits flowing disproportionately to the wealthy. A bill Trump signed on July 4 contains about $4.5 trillion of federal tax cuts over 10 years, but wealthy taxpayers in high-tax states like California, New York, and New Jersey are the biggest winners.

The scope of benefits for the ultra-wealthy extends beyond just tax cuts. Many of the wealthiest CEOs in America had a front row seat at the inauguration ceremony of Donald Trump, suggesting close relationships between the administration and corporate elites.

The Working Class Left Behind

In stark contrast, working families continue to struggle. The median worker at major retail corporations earns a fraction of what their CEOs save in taxes alone. The average worker at the eight stores was paid less than $32,000 in 2024, while their CEOs collectively saved $35 million in taxes.

This disparity is not accidental but reflects deliberate policy choices that prioritize capital returns over wage growth. While at the same time prices have soared for consumers and retail workers remain stuck in low-wage jobs, big-store CEOs and shareholders have reaped higher profits and lower taxes.

Congressional Budget Office Projections: More Pain Ahead

Economic Outlook Through 2027

The Congressional Budget Office’s latest projections paint a concerning picture for American workers in the coming years. The growth of wages and salaries is projected to slow from 2025 to 2029 because of declines in labor force participation, slowdowns in the growth of wage rates, and, over the 2025–2027 period, increases in unemployment.

Specifically, CBO expects:

The unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people are projected to increase through 2027, reflecting the slowdown in economic growth
The overall unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. In CBO’s projections, that rate rises to 4.4 percent by late 2027

Corporate Profit Maintenance

While workers face declining prospects, corporate profits are projected to remain elevated. The CBO analysis suggests that companies will maintain strong profit margins even as they reduce labor costs, indicating that the benefits of Trump’s policies will continue to flow primarily to capital rather than labor.

International and Historical Context

Historical Precedent

The current pattern of tax cuts benefiting the wealthy while workers struggle is not unprecedented in Trump’s governance. During Trump’s first presidency, compensation for America’s top executives grew 17 percent in 2017 as real wages for workers declined.

This suggests a consistent approach where campaign promises of helping working families are secondary to policies that benefit wealthy donors and corporate supporters.

Global Economic Comparison

While the United States experiences this economic divergence, other developed economies have taken different approaches to post-pandemic recovery, often with more equitable outcomes. The contrast highlights how policy choices, rather than inevitable economic forces, drive these disparities.

The Immigration Deflection Strategy

Scapegoating Economic Problems

Trump’s shift toward emphasizing immigration over economic issues appears strategic, allowing him to deflect from his failure to deliver on economic promises. Trump continues to say that migrants were coming into the country from prisons and mental institutions, despite fact-checking showing this to be false.

This rhetorical strategy serves to redirect public anger about economic conditions toward immigrants rather than examining the effectiveness of Trump’s actual economic policies.

The Policy Priority Contradiction

The administration’s focus on immigration enforcement while economic problems persist reveals the gap between campaign messaging and governing priorities. Resources dedicated to deportation operations could potentially be redirected toward job training, infrastructure investment, or other programs that might actually improve economic conditions for American workers.

Implications for American Democracy

The Trust Deficit

The disconnect between Trump’s campaign promises and governing reality raises fundamental questions about democratic accountability. When voters are told they will receive economic relief but instead see benefits flow primarily to corporate elites, it undermines faith in the electoral process and democratic institutions.

Information Asymmetry

The ability of wealthy interests to benefit from policies while working families struggle suggests an information asymmetry in how policy impacts are communicated to the public. Complex tax legislation and its distributional effects are often poorly understood by voters, allowing politicians to make promises that benefit their donors while appearing to help ordinary citizens.

Future Economic Projections and Risks

Inflation Risks from Trump Policies

Economic experts continue to warn that core elements of Trump’s agenda could reignite inflation. Trump’s promises to impose massive tariffs, deport millions of undocumented workers and potentially influence the Federal Reserve would weaken growth, boost inflation and lower employment.

These risks are not theoretical. Inflation would climb to at least 6% by 2026, and by 2028, consumer prices would be 20% higher, according to Peterson Institute researchers.

Long-term Competitiveness Concerns

The focus on tax cuts for corporations without corresponding investments in education, infrastructure, or worker training may undermine America’s long-term economic competitiveness. While companies receive immediate tax benefits, the structural changes needed to improve productivity and living standards remain unaddressed.

State-Level Resistance and Variation

State Policy Divergence

States in general are approaching Trump’s tax changes skeptically, with many choosing not to automatically conform to federal tax cuts. This state-level resistance suggests recognition that the benefits of Trump’s policies may not align with state priorities for supporting working families.

Some states are taking different approaches to economic policy that prioritize wage growth and worker protections over corporate tax cuts, creating a natural experiment in different policy approaches.

The Media and Messaging Challenge

Corporate Media Complicity

The challenge in communicating the reality of Trump’s economic policies is compounded by corporate media ownership and advertising models that may discourage critical coverage of business-friendly policies. Independent media outlets have been crucial in documenting the actual distributional impacts of tax policy.

The Complexity Advantage

The technical complexity of tax policy creates what economists call an “complexity advantage” for wealthy interests. While the benefits to corporate executives can be calculated precisely, the broader economic impacts on working families are diffused and harder to communicate, making it easier for politicians to obscure the true beneficiaries of their policies.

Recommendations for Reform

Immediate Policy Changes

To address the growing economic inequality exacerbated by current policies, several immediate changes could be implemented:

Progressive Taxation: Restore higher tax rates on corporate profits and executive compensation
Minimum Wage Increases: Federal action to ensure wages keep pace with productivity and cost of living
Stock Buyback Restrictions: Limit the use of tax savings for financial engineering that primarily benefits executives
Executive Compensation Caps: Tie tax benefits to companies based on their worker-to-CEO pay ratios

Structural Economic Reforms

Longer-term reforms might include:

Strengthening collective bargaining rights to give workers more power in wage negotiations
Public investment in infrastructure and education to create high-quality jobs
Healthcare and housing policies to reduce the burden of essential costs on working families

A Reckoning with Reality

The evidence from Trump’s second presidency reveals a stark disconnect between campaign promises and governing reality. While Trump campaigned on fixing the economy and controlling inflation, the actual policies implemented have primarily benefited wealthy corporate executives while working families face continued economic pressure.

The CEOs of Amazon, Best Buy, Costco, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, and Walmart have collectively saved close to $35 million on their individual tax returns while the average worker at the eight stores was paid less than $32,000 in 2024. This disparity encapsulates the true impact of Trump’s economic agenda.

The rising unemployment, slowing wage growth, and persistent cost-of-living challenges directly contradict Trump’s campaign promises. His own admission that immigration rather than economic issues was his real priority suggests that voters were misled about his actual governing agenda.

Whether this constitutes deliberate deception or a dramatic shift in priorities, the result is the same: American workers were promised economic relief but received policies that primarily benefit corporate elites. The massive tax cuts for wealthy executives while working families struggle represents a fundamental betrayal of the economic populism that Trump campaigned on.

As unemployment continues to rise and wage growth slows, the question becomes not just whether Trump’s campaign was full of lies and false promises, but whether American democracy can function effectively when there is such a dramatic disconnect between campaign rhetoric and governing reality. The concentration of tax benefits among wealthy corporate executives while working families face ongoing economic hardship suggests a political system that responds more to donor interests than voter needs.

The economic data is clear: Trump’s policies have delivered for the mega-rich while leaving working Americans behind. Whether this pattern continues will depend on whether voters demand accountability for campaign promises or accept that political rhetoric and policy reality can remain fundamentally disconnected. The stakes of this choice extend far beyond any single election cycle, touching on the basic question of whether democratic governance can deliver meaningful economic progress for ordinary citizens.

This analysis is based on comprehensive review of economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office, and independent economic research institutions. All findings are documented with specific citations to ensure factual accuracy and transparency.